[Note + Podcast] Trump is not a TACO. He is a Sandwich
A Thorough Analysis of Trump - His Background, His Motivation, and A Timely Accord of How the Upcoming Trade Saga May Unravel
Introduction
This note seeks to be a sequel of the one we released on Liberation Day - centering alongside the below theme - that understanding Trump's north star may be the single most important factor governing all trades over any market, over his regime.
That being said, my analysis of Trump herein, as much as I try, may still not be correct. It is worth noting that my findings below are an evolving view I have been building for months, especially since post-Liberation Day: as both my first attempt (how Liberation Day would go) and my second attempt (predicting how the US-China Feud would go) led to vastly incorrect conclusions. I chalk this up to not having done enough work. Therefore, for this piece, I have studied more of Trump's life and specifically cite templates during his 2024 presidency so far - to generate the predictive grounds for which the upcoming trade saga, and subsequently, the next few years will evolve.
First - let's confirm that there is value in forecasting what Trump will do. Is it as valuable as I deem it to be?
Alex Good (@goodalexander on Twitter) said this the other day - the Trump administration is maximizing intraday volatility while minimizing weekly / monthly volatility. Does this hold weight?